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The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median expected inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, while longer-term inflation expectations were unchanged. Consumers also expected weaker economic growth and higher unemployment, alongside higher income, spending and home-price growth.
The European Central Bank’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that consumers’ median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months edged up to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, while expectations three and five years ahead stayed unchanged; see the July 2026 survey results for the previous report. Respondents also lowered their outlook for economic growth and expected higher unemployment, a mixed picture that offers the ECB a monthly snapshot of household views on prices, jobs and spending.
Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5%, according to the ECB’s release; the July survey findings offer an earlier comparison. Expected inflation three years ahead remained at 2.9%, and the five-year expectation held at 2.5%. The ECB said uncertainty about inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. The ECB’s public survey on new banknote designs is another example of the institution seeking public input. The release does not quantify that change in uncertainty.
Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth also rose, to 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the previous 12 months was 5.3%, up from 5.2%. These are nominal measures and do not, by themselves, show how much consumers expect their purchasing power to change after inflation.
On the economy and labour market, expected growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Consumers put the expected current unemployment rate at 10.6%, which the ECB described as consistent with a broadly stable labour-market outlook. Expectations for home-price growth rose to 3.5% from 3.4%; expected mortgage rates remained at 4.9%. The net share reporting or expecting tighter credit conditions increased compared with August.
Households See Price and Job Risks
The results show why consumer expectations are relevant to the ECB’s assessment of the euro-area economy: households’ views on future prices, income, jobs, borrowing and spending can help policymakers gauge the pressures consumers may face. In September, the survey pointed in different directions: near-term inflation expectations increased slightly, while expectations for growth weakened and unemployment expectations rose.
The figures are survey responses, not forecasts issued by the ECB or measures of what will necessarily happen. Still, changes in household expectations can inform analysis of spending and wage-setting decisions. The distribution of responses also matters: lower-income respondents reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations on average than higher-income respondents, and they expected higher unemployment and mortgage rates. Those differences suggest economic pressures are not felt evenly across households.
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How the ECB Survey Is Conducted
The Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults in 11 euro-area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The ECB says it uses the results for policy analysis alongside other data sources. The survey release cautions that its results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or staff.
The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026. The ECB reports median figures for the main inflation expectations described in the release; it says other statistics are based on a 2% winsorised mean unless indicated otherwise. Country-level and euro-area results are published through the ECB Data Portal and the bank’s website.
““Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.””
— European Central Bank
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Limits of the September Results
The survey records consumer perceptions and expectations; it does not establish that inflation, unemployment, growth or housing costs will follow those paths. The release does not provide detailed explanations for why responses changed between August and September, nor does it give a numerical measure for the slight increase in uncertainty around near-term inflation expectations.
The ECB said the net percentage of households reporting tighter access to credit, compared with those reporting easier access, increased, as did the net percentage expecting tighter conditions. The release does not state the size of either change in the supplied results. The aggregate figures also do not establish how individual countries differed beyond the reported income-group patterns.
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October Survey Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026. That release will provide the next monthly comparison of consumer expectations. The underlying microdata for the September results are available through the survey’s data and methodological information page, allowing researchers to examine the responses in more detail.
Key Questions
What did the ECB’s September survey show about inflation expectations?
Median expected inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Expectations three years ahead stayed at 2.9%, and those five years ahead remained at 2.5%.
What did consumers expect for economic growth and unemployment?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months declined to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate in 12 months increased to 11.3% from 11.0%.
Did expectations for income and spending change?
Yes. Expected nominal income growth rose to 1.1% from 1.0%, and expected nominal spending growth increased to 3.7% from 3.6%.
When will the next ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results be released?
The ECB scheduled the October 2026 results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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